The end of social conservatism

One persistent dream of the right has been to leverage conservative social views among Latinos into support for Republican candidates and causes going forward. Looking over the exit polls from California, it seems like this is going to remain a dream.

California had two ballot initiatives on hot button social issues this year--a gay marriage ban (Prop 8) and the less well known Prop 4, which would have required that minors receive parental notifications for abortions. On both of these propositions, the headline Latino category held slim majorities voting 'yes.'

The headline number is deceiving, however. As I mentioned in the previous post, there was an enormous age gap on gay marriage. While age 30+ Californians opposed gay marriage, the under 30's voted strongly against the ban. This pattern held up across racial categories, with 18-29 year old Latinos voting strongly in favor of gay marriage. Almost 60% of young Latinos voted pro-marriage equality.

This pattern held up on the abortion initiative, as well. Over 30's held more conservative views (with the odd exception of 50-64 year olds), while young voters voted heavily against abortion restrictions. Again, more liberal social views were found among young voters across racial categories. Fully two thirds--66%--of 18-29 year old Latinos voted against stricter regulations on abortions. This was almost identical to the vote in the white 18-29 category, 68% of whom voted pro-choice.


So much for conservative Catholic Latinos providing a future base for social conservatism. If these views remain even remotely stable as our generation grows up, the James Dobsons of this world are finished. Good riddance.